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Episode 386: Listener Emails/Ricky Smith on Losing His Date to Derek Jeter
Date February 14, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about Mike Trout, Masahiro Tanaka, Javier Baez, and more, and Ben talks to Ricky Smith about being Jetered (at 44:17). Topics * Signing a player with guaranteed performance * Floor for top prospects * Young player extensions * Mike Trout extension * Masahiro Tanaka hype * Impact of fan managers * Trading Javier Baez * Baseball cyber attacks * Football vs. baseball UCL injuries * Interview with Ricky Smith about Derek Jeter Intro Derek and the Dominos, "I Looked Away" Email Questions * Coleman (South Hampton, UK): "The following question occurred to me after AJ Burnett signed a one year $16 million deal with the Phillies today. If a pitcher was projected to post a 3.5 ERA while pitching 200 innings, he could probably command a similar number to Burnett on a one year deal. If however, all 30 teams were given a crystal ball based guarantee that he would achieve those numbers, how much would the amount change by? Let's assume the pitcher is old like Burnett and will only accept a one year deal. While the risk of injury and poor performance is eliminated, so is the potential for a truly great season. I assume that teams would value certainty but how much of a salary bump would it lead to and would there be a difference in percentage increase between pitchers and hitters?" * Eric: "Would it be pedantic to state more clearly that every single prospect's floor and many prospect's realistic floor is not a big leaguer? I feel in the prospecting world echo chamber the idea that most true prospects will be big leaguers is overstated. Your thoughts?" * Matthew: "Reading about all the latest extensions for young players a question arose: what would it take for the pendulum to swing and teams to start eschewing long term deals? Alternatively, what would it take for players to no longer want to lock themselves into these types of agreements?" * Josh: "With the news that the Angels are going to discuss a long term contract with Mike Trout, I was wondering what you guys believe his agent should ask for in exchange for buying out his free agent years? Given Kershaw's AAV and the fact that position players are seen as more valuable than pitchers given the disparity in games played, Trout's age and the rate of inflation of baseball, would $35-40 million per season be a reasonable for Craig Landis to ask for after Trout's arb years, and if so would it make sense for the Angels to agree to that number?" * Andrew: "Despite the fact that win-loss record doesn't mean anything, do you think the fact that Tanaka was 24-0, such a perfect round 1.000 winning percentage, have anything to do with either the hype of his arrival in the US, the perception of his skill set by fans, or the perception of his skill set by teams and therefore the number of teams bidding and the price that they bid? I guess that what I'm asking is, were he 24-1 would it make a significant difference? Everything you read about his 2013 starts off by saying that he had a perfect 24-0 record or something to that effect. If he were 24-1 would the hype be as great?" * Josh: "Listening to Episode 381 currently and it reminded me of a theoretical question I had a couple years ago while at a very empty PNC Park. If you have a league average team that would under normal circumstances finish .500, but you auctioned off the opportunity for a fan to manage the team for a single game and did this for all 162 games of the season, what would the team's record be at the end of the year?" * Matt: "In light of the recent Cubs podcast (Episode 383), hypothetically if you were Theo Epstein would you seriously consider making a Javier Baez-led package in an attempt to acquire Giancarlo Stanton and sign him long term, especially considering we reasonably expect Starlin Castro to rebound to a roughly 3 win level and that he's under contract until 2020 when he'll be under 30 years old. Other than the Red Sox the Cubs are one of the few teams that have the prospects to acquire Stanton and money to extend him. Especially consider that the Cubs have depth in the left side of the infield and Baez is still risky with plate discipline concerns, he could be Pedro Alvarez 2.0 for all we know." * Matt: "Do you think we will ever see cyber spying in baseball? With cyber spying becoming a popular topic and baseball becoming more data driven do you see an age of high tech hijinks in baseball's future and what form would it take?" * Andrew: "Why don't quarterbacks blow out their elbows?" Notes * Sam thinks a player guaranteed to throw 200 innings with a 3.5 ERA would get a lower salary than AJ Burnett. Sam thinks that if no team could overrate him then no team would overpay him. Ben * Sam wishes he were at Baseball Prospectus when Burnett signed with Toronto, so he could write the headline "A.J. a Jay". * Ben thinks having a different fan manage each day would cause issues of continuity and that timing the warming up of relievers would be especially difficult. He thinks the team would win 72 games, Sam puts a floor at 66 wins. * The cyber spying question and discussion predate the infamous 2015 story in which an Astros database was found to have been hacked by a former scouting director who was then working for the Cardinals. * Ricky tells the story about going out to the club with a girl in New York and having her leave with Derek Jeter. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 386: Listener Emails/Ricky Smith on Losing His Date to Derek Jeter * Trading Giancarlo Stanton by Sam Miller * Ricky Smith tweet thread about Derek Jeter Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes Category:Email Episodes